Gryphons II -- Hand writeup -- January 19, 2002 Jim Plank & Kevin Wilson Here is the big swing board of 1/19. It doesn't seem very exciting to me, but we'll go over it. The decision hand is north (plus, N/S may need some agreements). Board: 2 Dealer: E Vul: N-S S A943 H KQ8 D 52 C KQJ3 Pass from lefty, and partner opens 1d. 1s from you and partner reverses to 2H. Here your agreements come into play. What is forcing, and what isn't? Is 2N forcing? Do you care? I think there's an argument for 6n, but knowing me and my desire to take things slowly, I'd probably bid 2n, forcing, to hear what north has to say. North bids 3d, and now I think 6n is right, again if you have no other agreements. Kevin: I like to play any bid is forcing and natural. I don't play escapes after a reverse, but I could pass the reverse if I was just escaping a bad 1 level suit. Playing minorwood, I'd trot out 4d, and partner will bid 4h, showing one or four key cards. 4s asks for the QD, and if pard has it, I'll bid 7n (looks like we have 6 diamonds, three hearts, four clubs, and a spade -- that's 14 tricks!). Partner bids 4n, denying the queen, and now 6n is fine. Kevin: I like your plan but not your final decision. You'd bid a grand banking on a 3-2 split? What if his pattern was 1-4-5-3? Then it would be a 3-3 split if he didn't have the jack. I think you should condsider 5NT (after asking for the queen) to guarantee all the key cards and suggest the grand. (I see he might not be too excited but if his diamonds were solid he would probably bid it.) He has to trust your bidding. This is a good hand to artificially set diamonds as trumps so you can ask about the diamond queen. You can always convert to nt later. I'll deal with this after the hand. Here are the hands: S A943 H KQ8 D 52 C KQJ3 S KT86 S QJ72 H T95432 H D T D QJ9 C 62 C T98754 S 5 H AJ76 D AK87643 C A Pity pard doesn't have the QD -- then we have 16 tricks! As it is, 6n is down on a spade lead, but given the bidding and east's hand, I think the CT is most likely. Given the bidding, the SQ probably can't hurt, but I think I'd lead the CT. Kevin: I disagree with the 2H bid. I think 3D is more descriptive. Over 3nt I would bid 4H next (or raise 3H to 4). 7-4 hands rarely play well in a 4-4 fit. The scores: 4 - +1440 6N+6. No one found a spade lead. 1 - +1370 6D+6. The par result was worth 3/7. So it goes. 2 - +690 3N+6. 1 - +660 3N+5. Did Bob Levesque or Mary Fry find a spade lead? Perhaps we'll never know.... Ok, back to the question of the grand slam. I think if pard is 1-4-5-3, he should bid 3c over 2n. 2d should guarantee six diamonds. If I thought pard could have only 5 diamonds, I'd be less aggressive, and do something like you suggest (show partner that we have all the aces plus the KQ of diamonds, and let him make the final decision). Given that, how good of a bid would 7n be if pard had the QD? It doesn't look like we can make 13 tricks without the diamonds, so concentrate on that suit. Without the DJ, you need diamonds to split 3-2, which is a 67.8% chance. Otherwise, you need the DJ, so I'll simulate. Ok, given over 10,000,000 random hands opposite A943,KQ8,52,KQJ3, 65 have x-4-6-x shape with under 21 points and the requisite cards (AH, AKQD, AC). Since the hand has only 8 tricks, I wouldn't open it 2C. Of these, 23 have the DJ. This means you will make 7n 100*((23/65)+.678*(42/65)) = 79.2 percent of the time. Is this good enough to bid? Well, in saturday's game, bidding 6n got you 5.5/7 = 78.5%, so 7N probably is only worth the adrenaline and the bragging you get to do later if it makes. If more of the field is finding 6n, I think 7n is a worthwhile bid. At IMPs, your expected value is -100x.208+2210x.792 = 1730, which is clearly higher than 1440/1470. Moreover, if the diamonds don't come home and the opponents find a spade lead, you won't even make 6n. So, at IMPs, 7n seems like a clear winner. Kevin may disagree, but I'd rather be there at both matchpoints and IMPs. Bidding grands that most pairs don't find is one of the joys of bridge -- I wouldn't want to deprive myself that joy...... Kevin: My final word... I agree that a rebid of 3D should show 6 or more diamonds but that's the end of where we agree. Why try for a super top? 67.8 % Grand Slams assume that every other pair reaches the best slam. On this hand isn't 6D the only cold slam anyway? My philosphy is to let partner make that decision since I don't have diamond length to solidify the AKQ. If I had Jx for instance, or if I had even xxx I would bid the grand myself. Simulate the number of times partner has the J all you want, I'll just ask him for it! No problem. We all reserve the right to be wrong, and it's ok for you to exercise it every now and then...... ------------------------------------------------------------ Board: 23 Dealer: S Vul: Both Look at the E/W hands. Can you find 6S after south opens 1d? Commentaries of this type are kind of self-serving, since I know that 6S is shivering cold, but it will be good to hear Kevin's comments. S KT8753 S AQ962 H AJ943 H 5 D 9 D J8 C K C AQ762 First, what do you bid over 1d? 2d or 1s? I'm a 1s bidder -- typically I reserve 2d for weak (10 or fewer pts), or strong (16+) hands. I know I have 11 points with three of them in a stiff king, but this is a strong hand. I want partner fishing for game when I get my heart bid in. I think east should bid either 2d or 4h over 1s. Certainly 4s is way too weak. Now it's anyone's guess, but I think west can easily drive to a slam after 4h. I'm not sure about 2d. I'll let Kevin give his preferred bidding sequence, but here are the hands and results: S J H QT87 D Q542 C J843 S KT8753 S AQ962 H AJ943 H 5 D 9 D J8 C K C AQ762 S 4 H K62 D AKT763 C T95 Kevin: I think the responding hand should be the one driving to slam. My sequence: After 1d: 1S 2D 2H 3C 4D* 4N 5H** 6S * splinter ** 2 key cards & no spade queen Kevin: the logic of 4nt is the fact that 3 clubs drew a splinter... this shows more interest then either 3 or 4 spades so partner must think he has some good cards for slam. The 5th trump and the stiff heart are enough to ask for key cards. I disagree with 4H first because all the room is gone. If you're going to bid 4H as a splinter then bid 2D first and then bid 4H over partner's likely low level bid. What will you bid over 1S-4H-4S? Driving to slam is unilateral now...As you see, my plan was to show support and then show my good club suit. I think my bidding is more descriptive and I think I will get to slam 85% of the time on these cards. I don't know about slam after 1D-2D*-P-4S-P-??? I don't think its clear to bid here. Results -- an equal split: 4 pairs in 6S and 4 in 4S. Kevin: It would be interesting to see which pairs reached slam after a 1S bid or a 2D bid. Anyone who played it want to chime in?