PROGRESS REPORT:

INTEGRATED MODELING PROJECT (IMP) MAY 1997

  1. SECOND STEERING COMMITTEE MEETING


    2. The second Steering Committee meeting was held on Feb 6-7, 1997 in Raleigh, NC. The meeting was chaired by Steve McNulty, Director of the Southern Golbal Change Program of the USDA Forest Service, Raleigh, NC. The following persons participated in the meeting :
    Steering Committee  -
         Pat Brewer, Dick Daniels, Susan Fox, Dave Kicklighter, Al Lucier, Steve McNulty,
         Bob Teskey
    Guests  -
         Mark Ducey, Harbin Lee, Arthur Sampson, Ge Sun, David Wear
    IMP Investigators  -
         Ralph Amateis, Clark Baldwin, Michael Berry, Bill Hargrove, Dale Johnson, Bob Luxmoore, Steve McNulty, Bob Mickler, Karen Minser, Kelly Peterson, Mac Post

    The meeting was conducted with four components:
    Report on IMP developments since the August 96 meeting, Responses to Steering Committee comments, Scope of forest assessment, IMP assignments for next year.

  2. IMP DEVELOPMENTS
    3.

  3. Linked Dynamic Model Components:
    4.
    NuCM has been calibrated for the slash pine site in Gainesville, FL. The PnETIIS code was converted to FORTRAN and linked to PRISM for sensitivity and uncertainty analysis. Some adjustments to the MAESTRO code were made. Sensitivity analysis results for MAESTRO, NuCM, and PnETIIS were completed and summarized. Sensitivity analysis of all component codes of the Linked Dynamic Model is now complete. NuCM is used to determine soil nutrient limitations on forest growth predictions from LINKAGES and PnETIIs. If soil limitations are predicted, then the nutrient-limited growth predictions from NuCM will be adopted in further analyses. The protocols for nutrient limitations on forest growth have been tested in NuCM applications. Initial simulations of water, nitrogen deposition, and (quasi) elevated CO2 effects on forest growth have been undertaken with NuCM.

  4. GIS and Clustering:
    5.
    The GIS map layer development is continuing for use in regional modeling. A first draft of a soil N map was developed from STATSGO and a soil taxonomy database. Some simplifying assumptions were made in map development to overcome the lack of some soil N data. A revision of the map will be made to account for the proportion of coarse fragments in the soils. An initiative to determine the QA/QC basis of the databases (e.g., STATSGO, RPA) used in GIS map development is underway. Bob Mickler is working with Bill Hargrove on this important issue. A statistical technique for determining landscape clusters from selected attributes is being developed. The method may be applied independently with the selected attributes or within the structure of a selected land classification scheme. (Approximately 750-1000 clusters, each with relatively similar attributes, will be used for regional assessment with the parallel version of LUCAS). Following the Steering Committee meeting in Feb. 97, the 13- state IMP region has been successfully clustered into 255 divisions, at 5 km resolution, using 6 tree growth variables: mean annual temperature, mean annual rainfall, elevation, soil available water content, soil organic matter, and soil nitrogen. A report of this work, in electronic form, will be posted on the Internet.

  5. Response Surfaces:
    6.
    The NetCDF software is now used at the Univ. of TN, Knoxville for storing results as response surfaces from simulators of the Linked Dynamic Model. A method for estimating response surface values for conditions between those with simulated values, using multidimensional interpolation, is undergoing refinement and testing. Files of simulation results are called simabases in this project so as to be distinct from database files containing measurements.

  6. Growth Types:
    7.
    Growth types (normalized tree height as a function of age) have been derived for all southern pines from analysis of 436 growth curves from a broad range of locations. Of these growth curves, 354 were suitable for detailed analysis. Base ages of 25 and 40 years were determined as the best combination for calculation of growth types. Smooth curves were fitted to the growth types. These curves will be incorporated into the LINKAGES model for determination of the simulated growth type resulting from specific modeling scenarios. The simulated growth types for loblolly pine will be used as indicators of how other pine species may respond to the modeling scenario. A manuscript on the calculation of growth types using data for a range of southern pine species has been drafted.

  7. SCOPE OF FOREST ASSESSMENT
    8.

    Three dominant forest types will be the main focus of the regional assessment. These are loblolly pine, slash pine, and deciduous forest. The IMP investigators suggest the follow ranges for environmental variables: atmospheric CO2 (270-600 uL/L) ozone exposure (0 - 200 uL.h/L) annual N deposition (0 - 20 kgN/ha) precipitation (0 -120 dry days, based on soil water status) temperature (2500 - 7000 degree C.days)

  8. IMP PLANS
    9.

    A summary list of IMP components and lead person(s) outlines the direction of IMP with planned activities as follows:

  9. MAESTRO (Baldwin/Peterson)
    10.
    Complete application to Athens, GA data Initiate applications for the SETRES (NC) and ECOPHYS (LA) sites

  10. SPM (Cropper)
    11.
    Test and modify SPM as needed to match eddy covariance flux data from the slash pine site at Gainesville (FL) Revise sensitivity analysis for the modified SPM (Tharp) Develop frequency distributions for sensitive variables Apply SPM to a mensuration site in the western range of slash pine

  11. UTM (Luxmoore/Tharp)
    12.
    Assemble meteorological data for 1993-96 from Walker Branch watershed (TN) in UTM format Test UTM with eddy covariance data and ecophysiological data for eastern deciduous forest sites on Walker Branch watershed Calibrate UTM with MAESTRO results from field applications Assemble data for SETRES site and test the calibrated UTM code

  12. LINKAGES (Tharp/Post)
    13.
    Apply LINKAGES to the SETRES (NC), ECOPHYS (LA), OKIES (OK), and Walker Branch (TN) sites Develop a slash pine version of LINKAGES and apply to Gainesville (FL) site Conduct resolution test: What level of growth increment gives a significant response? (e.g., uncertainty analysis with growth increments of 0.9, 1.0, and 1.1)

  13. NuCM (Johnson)
    14.
    Calibrate NuCM for the SETRES (NC) site Identify potential soil nutrient limitations for high growth rate forests at calibrated sites for cases with and without N deposition

  14. PnETIIS (McNulty)
    15.
    Develop frequency distributions for sensitive variables Develop for cluster-based assessment

  15. PTAEDA2 (Tharp/Amateis)
    16.
    Apply to SETRES (NC), ECOPHYS (LA), and OKIES (OK) sites Develop for cluster-based assessment Conduct resolution test: What level of change in site index gives a significant response? (e.g., uncertainty analysis with 19.3, 19.5, and 19.7 m site indices)

  16. GROWTH TYPES (Zeide)
    17.
    Complete manuscript for growth types of southern pine species Develop relationships between the growth types of loblolly pine and the growth type of other southern pines growing loblolly Initiate approach for linking growth types to forest productivity

  17. RESPONSE SURFACE SOFTWARE (Minser/Berry)
    18.
    Complete software development for response surface generation and management using C++ and NetCDF Complete and test multi-dimensional interpolation approach Develop graphical display of interpolated response surfaces

  18. GIS Maplayers (Hargrove)
    19.
    Develop maplayers for regional applications Determine QA/QC for databases used in maplayers (Mickler) Complete cluster characterization for 13-state region Establish cluster-based maplayer structure

  19. LUCAS (Minser/Berry)
    20.
    Set up parallel version of LUCAS for cluster-based assessment

  20. IMP WEB PAGE (Minser/All)
    21.
    Continue web site development

  21. PRODUCTS (All, lead contributor shown)
    22.
    GIS maplayers available by registration at IMP Website (Hargrove) Paper on a customized ecoregions (Hargrove) Overview paper for IMP (Luxmoore) Paper on growth types (Zeide) Paper on NuCM applications (Johnson)

  22. OTHER DEVELOPMENTS
    23.
    Dr. David Wear is determining transition probabilities for land use change on a county basis for the 13 state region from an analysis of historical land use records. This work will be completed next year, and will provide information that can be incorporated into LUCAS for assessment of land use change effects. Discussions will continue on cooperation between IMP and the land use change investigations.