Three hands from Gryphons II -- September 22, 2001 Jim Plank, with commentary by Kevin Wilson There were some big swing boards last saturday. Here's one: ---------------------------------- Board: 2 Dealer: E Vul: N-S You're dealer, with: S KT98432 H 862 D A C 62 Do you open 3s, 2s, or pass? I imagine there will be opinions in all three camps -- some won't open 3s with an outside ace; some won't open 2s with seven spades. I'm betting Kevin will open 2s, reserving 3s for weaker hands. I'd open 3s, preferring that bid to show any hand with a seven-card suit that is too weak for 1s. Kevin: I would open 2S and (eventually) bid a game over any kind of invite. I don't think it's wrong to open 3S, just not my preference. South passes and west raises to 4s. Now you're in the north hand, with: S 5 H 7 D Q98764 C AK983 Do you bid? And what? I think 4n is not out of the question. 6-5 hands don't grow on trees, and you may as well make opponents' life uneasy. Perhaps you're setting 4s, but you may push west into an unmakable 5s. The vulnerability is scary though, so I imagine lots of people pulled out the green card. Kevin: This is a challenge. The only info that you have is that partner couldn't double over 2S or bid a suit and the hearts have to be somewhere... Red vs. white I would probably pass, and at equal or favorable vulnerability, I'd probably bid. I think there is definitely a chance that 4S is going down with my cards. Here are the hands. If north bids 4n, south will bid 5c, and I imagine west will double rather than take the push. I could be wrong. S 5 H 7 D Q98764 C AK983 S AJ76 S KT98432 H AK54 H 862 D J52 D A C QT C 62 S Q H QJT93 D KT3 C J754 The results: 1: +750 -- Brian Sims and Elaine Jerviss score the top: 5C doubled and making, likely after west tries to cash the AK of hearts. 1: +100 -- I'm guessing Kevin and Ted pushed the opps into 5S down one. 1: -200 -- Clubs going down, undoubled? Perhaps. Still, above average. 3: -420 -- 4S + 4. You'll note, 5C doubled by north may well be a disaster. East can lead his DA and get two diamond ruffs for down three and -800. With west leading, it's probably hard not to cash major-suit aces, and down one is the limit. Kevin: Ted made a 2-suited bid, and I decided to show my clubs with a 4C bid. I had support for both his suits, and he was bidding RED vs. white. He bid 5C and we went plus against 5S just like you thought. ---------------------------------- Board: 13 Dealer: N Vul: Both Board 13 was a nice double-swing board. First decision is east's: S AJ764 H 8 D KJ732 C J8 After one pass, do you open? It's got the required 20 rule-of-20 points (10 HCP and 10 cards in the long suits), so I'd open 1s. Now south's turn: S 3 H AK962 D AT C KT642 Do you overcall 2H, or do you bid 2S, to show hearts and a minor? My partners and I play that the Michaels bid shows a weak hand (8-11) or a strong hand (16+). This is in the middle, so I'd bid 2H. Bidding afterwards should be straightforward: S Q5 H J7543 D 854 C Q97 S KT982 S AJ764 H QT H 8 D Q96 D KJ732 C A53 C J8 S 3 H AK962 D AT C KT642 N E S W P 1S 2H 3H 4H P? P 4S I found it interesting that almost everyone was +4: 1: +620 -- Again, Brian and Elaine got the top, with 4H + 4. 5: -620 -- The rest were in 4S + 4. 1: -1130 -- 3S doubled, +5. Whoops. A top for Basil and Jo Anne. With west declaring 4s or north declaring 4h, the defense is easy -- cash your major suit ace, and switch. However, with east declaring 4s, I'm surprised that all souths found the club switch at trick two. Without it, east should chalk up +650 easily. Similarly, with south declaring 4h, it does not seem clear to me that all east's will switch to a diamond at trick two. Again, without it, south can make +5 by getting the club suit right. Kevin: Ted and I kept them out of game after they didn't open 1S with the E cards. ---------------------------------- Board: 21 Dealer: N Vul: N-S S AKJ8732 H Q9 D T5 C AQ S Q H A8 D AKJ842 C 8743 1s by north. 2d by south. I think 4s by north is a good bid. It says, ``Pard, I don't care about your hand -- we're playing 4s, even if you have a 10 count and a spade void.'' If you're playing two over one, I think north's hand is too strong for 4s -- I would bid 2s and keep bidding spades. Partner should figure it out. With such a strong hand, south will push onto slam, and not surprisingly, five of the seven pairs reached 6s (one doubled). S T4 H 76432 D 96 C JT52 Now, given the east hand, what is your lead? With bidding going something like 1s-2d-4s-4n-5x-6s, I think there are arguments for either a heart or a club: With south bidding diamonds, and the auction proceeding strongly, you need an attacking lead. The JC may do a better job of promoting an honor for your side; Then again, it may take a guess away from declarer. Your heart length may be a strength or a negative for leading -- maybe declarer is short and the dummy is longer, and they can get a quick club pitch on a heart card. Or, maybe you and pard have all the hearts except the ace, and you need to get the lead in before declarer runs diamonds. I don't know. Perhaps Kevin will enlighten. Kevin: I think the lead depends a lot on the exact auction. I cue-bid 4C with the north cards since I was worried about hearts, and in so doing, I marked a H lead. Without any bidding suggestions I think a club is my choice. Back to north/south. You are north, a heart is led. How do you play the hand? S AKJ8732 H Q9 D T5 C AQ S Q H A8 D AKJ842 C 8743 Since the auction calls for an attacking lead, ducking may be right -- east may have led from the king, and you will be +7 when you duck. However, the HQ is a great threat card to hold after you take the ace, and it may help you generate an endplay or squeeze. Kevin: There are a couple of problem with entries on this hand. First, there is no convienent entry to the north hand to draw trumps unless you overtake, and then you lose when trumps are 4-1. Second, the problem with taking the ace of hearts is that you only have 11 tricks, and a squeeze or endplay is usually worth 1. You have to play a club to the ace to get to your hand to draw the rest of the trumps. If you duck and win, you'll likely make 7. If you duck and lose, and they return a heart, then you have issues. Unfortunately, you don't have the entries to draw trump, cash the top diamonds, ruff a diamond and discard your losers on diamonds. After the heart lead and return, you have two sources for trick #12 -- a third diamond or a second club. Unfortunately, you can't try two finesses, so you'll have to pick one. Initially, it looks like the choice doesn't matter, but there are some ramifications of picking clubs vs. diamonds: - If you pick diamonds, you can play the queen of spades, ace of diamonds (to catch the stiff queen), and cross to hand with the ace of clubs, and therefore pick up the 4-1 spade break. - If you pick clubs, you'll either have to take the finesse at trick 4 (after cashing the SQ and DA to see if the DQ falls singleton), or you'll have to overtake the SQ and hope that spades are 3-2. If you choose the latter (overtaking the SQ), then when you cross to the DK to take the club finesse, there's a chance that the DQ will drop, and you won't have to take the club finesse after all. Let's analyze them. - Spades being 3-2 is 65%. - Spades being 3-2 or 4-1 is 91%. - The club finesse is 50%. - The diamond finesse is 50%. - The queen of diamonds falling singleton is 1.8%. - The queen of diamonds falling doubleton is 26%. So, Line 1: (lose heart, HA, SQ, DA, CA, Spades, diamond finesse): .91 * (.018 + (1-.018)*(.50)) = 46.3% Line 2: (lose heart, HA, SQ, DA, club finesse): Same thing: 46.3% Line 3: (lose heart, HA, DA, overtake SQ, Spades, DK, club finesse): (.018 * .91) + (1-.018)*(.65)*(.26 + (1-.26)*.5) = 42% (The expression is complicated because if the DQ falls stiff, you can tolerate a 4-1 spade break). So, lines 1 and 2 look equivalent. First, a comment -- yes, this would appear that the slam is under 50%, but that's only after the HQ loses, which is a 50% proposition. So, instead of being 46.3%, it's really 73.2% (.5 + .5*26.3). This is one of those hands that looks like there should be a squeeze available, but I'm not really good at seeing these yet, so I turn the analysis over to Kevin, who shows that you can use Line 1 to generate some extra chances: Kevin: In order for a squeeze to work you have to have only one loser. This is called "rectifying the count". So what trick can you lose without them cashing the HK? None. So you might be able to use the heart to throw someone in, and it that case, you are conceding a heart. If that's your plan, you may as well duck the opening lead and hope the Q wins. This is what I did. When it doesn't win, then my count was rectified, so I got to wait to decide between the squeeze and the diamond finesse. But I had another advantage on my side... If west has the CK and Qxx of diamonds he will almost always throw the club K because he isn't sure who has the CQ. So I get to finesse the diamonds when I don't see it... To make this more specific, Kevin lost the HK early and took line 1. I'm not sure if he cashed the DA early or not. However, before trying the diamond finesse, he cashed all of his spades. This forces the opponents to find discards. After cashing the last spade, here is the end position. S - H - D x C Q S - H - D KJ C If west started with the CK and Qxx of diamonds, then he'll likely throw the CK, because declarer's rejecting of the club finesse at trick 4 implies that partner has it. So, after running the spades, you have three choices: - If the CK has appeared comes out, then your CQ is good. - If opponents have tossed a bunch of diamonds, you play for the DQ to drop. - Otherwise, you play for the diamond finesse. On the actual hand, when Kevin played it, west threw the CK. I asked if he would have gone down had west kept the CK and the DQ, and he said no -- east had already dropped a diamond, so if wests discards one too, the queen is falling. S AKJ8732 H Q9 D T5 C AQ S 965 S T4 H KJT5 H 76432 D Q73 D 96 C K96 C JT52 S Q H A8 D AKJ842 C 8743 The scores: 1: +1660 -- Barbara Cheek and Jean Mather were doubled and made the doublers pay! (That's 6S-X + 6) 2: +1460 -- Any lead other than a heart makes 7 very easily. Were there really five easts who led hearts? 2: +1430 -- 6S+6 2: +680 -- 4S+6 Averages/Stddevs: 12 767.14 503.41 13 -515.71 495.92 2 -147.14 408.23 26 792.86 406.82 21 1257.14 372.36 7 -315.71 329.32 16 -258.57 312.84 4 -131.43 310.18 14 -197.14 271.33 18 -224.29 254.83 9 284.29 243.36 5 90.00 239.40 25 145.71 221.29 27 511.43 214.30 8 -64.29 213.33 19 -141.43 213.24 15 -84.29 191.75 11 32.86 190.09 24 -268.57 170.33 20 578.57 167.71 6 41.43 167.54 3 300.00 166.90 17 21.43 166.60 28 -82.86 134.35 10 52.86 113.61 23 102.86 91.76 22 -5.71 85.50 1 -92.86 17.50