Gryphons II -- Hand writeup -- March 2, 2002
                       Jim Plank & Kevin Wilson

Board: 1   Dealer: N    Vul: None

Well, I'm going to put myself in west's shoes, and pretend I'm bidding
with Suzy or Brad.  I have:

S AJ53
H 2
D A642
C KT86

Partner opens 1C.  I'll bid 1D -- I only skip to 1S with a weak hand.
1H by partner and 1s by me.  Now partner jumps to 2N, and I have some
decisions to make, along with some issues concerning bidding
agreements.  First, is 3c forcing?  I would certainly think so, but
does it do any good?  It shows partner shape.  Does it imply slam
interest, or just a 4144 or 4054 hand?  I think the latter.  If
partner has 5 clubs, it may propel pard into thinking about slam, and
with the exception of the JS, partner can find out about all my
honors with a key card bid.  I'll bid 3c.  Pard bids 3n.  Yuck.  I'm
still fishing for slam -- 4c, which we play as ``minorwood,'' asking
for key cards in clubs.  You may try to argue with me that this
should be Gerber, but I won't agree with you.  Partner bids 4s,
showing two key cards with the queen of spades, and I'm bidding 6c.
Yes, we have all the keys and the queen of clubs, but we have a
maximum of 31 points, and I don't think partner has a long suit,
including clubs.  Where are the tricks coming from in 7c?

Jim's bidding sequence:

    E          W
    1c         1d
    1h         1s
    2n         3c
    3n         4c
    4s         6c

I'm sure Kevin will disagree.

Kevin:    Definitely!  My auction:
      1c        1d
      2n        3c
      3h        3n
     I can't envision 12 tricks from either side.  The problem
     is that neither hand has a five card suit that is a source
     of tricks.  If I were trying for a slam it would be six
     clubs, but the fact that pard showed a four card heart suit
     with 3H suggests that he is at the most 4-4 in hearts and
     clubs.  With 4-5 in hearts and clubs I would expect a
     reverse into 2 hearts after the 1c opening.  I know with my
     12 HCP we have 30 or 31 combined and no clear source of
     Jim, were you really considering a grand?
No -- but you told me in your email that some people bid 7, so I 
thought I'd address it.
Now, you have east's hand, and partner has jacked you into 6c:

                S K92
                H AKT4
                D K85
                C AQ2

What do you know about partner's hand?  Well, he is 4144 or 4054.  You
play a strong version of inverted minors -- 2c over 1c is game forcing
with at least 5 clubs, and can be done with a 4-card major, so partner
can only have 4 clubs.  You're not scared of a heart lead, and ruffing
hearts does not look like a winning proposition anyway.  Do you convert
to 6N?

Sure, why not?  At least in 6n, you don't have bring home the club

Kevin:    I agree with that reasoning and I would also correct to 
          6nt since I have only 3 clubs.

6N by east:

S AJ53          S K92
H 2             H AKT4
D A642          D K85
C KT86          C AQ2

Ok, now the spotlight is on south with the opening lead:

         S Q84
         H J8753
         D JT9
         C 73

I'm leading the DJ.  I imagine lots will lead the H5, but I don't think
it's wise to lead into east's heart holding.  This may be especially
bad if west is void in hearts, and you are giving east a finesse he
couldn't take himself.

6N by east -- south leads the DJ:

S AJ53          S K92
H 2             H AKT4
D A642          D K85
C KT86          C AQ2

Yuck.  This hand sucks.  There are 9 tricks off the top, and various
ways to develop more:

    - The SQ can be onside
    - Spades can split 3-3
    - Diamonds can split 3-3
    - Clubs can split 3-3 or the CJ can be onside.
    - Perhaps there's a squeeze.   I do have threats in every suit,
      and maybe something good can come of the HT.  I wish I were
      better at seeing squeezes.

But I need three more.  And I doubt I'm getting any diamonds without
losing one.  I'm going to win the KD and take the spade hook.  If it loses,
I believe I need a miracle, so we may as well find out if we need to
be praying.  It wins!  Ok, I need 2 more tricks, and there are chances
for them to come from every suit.  I think I'm going to lose a diamond
now.  The reason is that I have to lose a trick sometime, and since I'm
praying for 3-3 splits in two out of three suits, I don't want to test
any before losing a diamond, so that I can still test the diamond suit.

Ok -- I don't see the issue.  I'll test spades and they'll work.  Then
diamonds.  Making 6.  Kevin, where's the squeeze?

All four hands:

         S T76          
         H Q96          
         D Q73          
         C J954         

S AJ53          S K92          
H 2             H AKT4         
D A642          D K85          
C KT86          C AQ2          

         S Q84          
         H J8753        
         D JT9          
         C 73           

Kevin:  You might have a squeeze, but on this layout you don't 
        have the position.  The club threat is in the wrong hand
        because north discards after west and you don't really have
        position to operate a diamond-heart squeeze because both
        hands can guard hearts.  A double squeeze might also exist,
        but again not on this layout

        The interesting point of the hand to me is whether or not to
        win the first diamond and if you do, in which hand should you
        win it.  I am advocating ducking the first diamond because it
        is unlikely south will switch to hearts and that is the way
        for south to break up many squeeze possibilities... to remove
        an entry to your hand before you are ready.  If you don't
        duck the first diamond the north can overtake the 2nd and
        return a heart.  On this hand it makes no difference but I
        think the best plan is to duck the first diamond.  For ANY
        squeeze to work you must lose one trick to "rectify the
        count".  With 3 or 4 spades, 2 hearts, 2 diamonds, and 3(4 if
        spades don't break 3-3) clubs you only get to 11 and since a
        squeeze is only worth one extra trick you must properly set
        it up.

        You may as well assume the spade finesse is on because if it
        is not you are doomed.  Even if you get 4 clubs, (2 diamonds,
        2 hearts, and 3 spades) you are going down.

The scores:

        1 - +990: Mike Waters and Gene Roy were the only ones in 6N+6.
                  Have Mike and Gene lost a game in the last two months?

        1 - +920: Geoff Greene and Carol Mims are in 6 of a minor.  6D
                  makes like 6N.  6C is more interesting.  I can see it
                  making by playing on spades after two rounds of clubs,
                  and east pitching a diamond on the 4th spade.  I'm
                  too tired to think it through completely.

        1 - +490: Vincent Carcello and Elaine Jerviss are in 3n, making 6
                  for 75%.

        2 - +430: 3n + 4 was worth 55%.

Onto the plusses for E/W:

        3 - +100 Something down two.  Perhaps Kevin can fill in.

        1 - +150 Something down three -- ouch!  Rica and Dr. Narain (I've
                 forgotten your first name -- sorry) pull out a top by
                 setting something three.

Kevin:  I know 7nt was down 2 twice.  7NT??? on 30-31 HCP and no five 
        card suits?  What were they smoking?  I'd like to play these
        people for money!  

Finally -- is this a good slam?  Hell no!  Given my line, you need
the SQ to be onside and for two out of the three potential 3-3 fits
to be on.  Or for the CJ to drop doubleton.  Suppose you play spade hook,
lose a diamond, test spades, test diamonds, then deal with clubs.
That's .5 * (.35 + .65*.35 + .65*.65*.5) = 0.39 -- 39%.  I'm sure
I've calculated the club suit wrong.  Still, it will be under 50%.

Kevin: Another example of playing well scoring enough matchpoints
       that you don't need to bid perfectly.  3nt +6 = 75%